RBC's Helima Croft on why oil saw its worst year since 2020 - part 1/2
2025-12-31_22-41 • 5m 48s
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:00.000
It
was
a
good
year
for
stocks,
but
not
a
good
year
for
any
traders
that
were
long
oil.
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:06.040
Oil
having
one
of
its
worst
years
in
years,
down
about
20%.
American
oil
output
is
at
a
record
high.
Inventory
globally,
they're
up.
But
there's
also
many
big
macro
issues
to
focus
on
with
oil,
whether
it's
Russia
or
Venezuela,
now
even
some
developments
in
Nigeria.
Let's
talk
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:23.760
about
it
all.
More
about
the
commodity,
these
risks
and
more.
CNBC
contributor
RBC
Capital
Markets
Global
head
of
commodity
strategy
and
somebody
who
took
a
break
from
a
vacation
to
join
us.
No.
Yes.
Yes.
And
we
do
appreciate
Halima.
Thank
you
very
much.
Are
you
able
to
you
do
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:41.120
these
global
macro
better
than
anybody?
Are
you
able
to
rank
sort
of
the
risks
at
the
uh
the
oil
markets
are
facing
next
year?
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
00:48.320
I
mean
the
question
is
Brian,
are
we
going
to
be
seriously
oversupplied?
What
caught
a
lot
of
market
participants
by
surprise
this
year?
Was
the
OPEC
decision
to
phase
in
barrels?
right
after
tariff
liberation
day.
I
mean,
they
announced
that
they
would
be
quickly
bringing
back
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
01:05.920
over
2
million
barrels
of
production.
We
probably
got
half
of
that
because
it
was
mainly
Saudi
barrels,
but
that
came
against
the
backdrop,
as
you
just
mentioned,
a
very
high
US
production,
continued
high
production
out
of
Guyana,
Brazil.
So
we
had
plenty
of
oil
this
year
and
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
01:23.880
the
big
geopolitical
stories
that
we
would
think
about
is
disrupting
oil
supplies
like
the
Iran,
Israel,
US
12
day
war,
really
didn't
lose
any
barrels
on
that.
So
the
question
is,
is
it
the
same
story
next
year
in
terms
of
being
a
wash
and
oil
or
is
something
going
to
happen
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
01:40.600
seriously
with
Venezuela,
Russia,
watch
the
second
story
on
Iran.
But
again,
right
now
everyone's
saying
we
look
like
we
have
plenty
of
oil
for
next
year.
But
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
01:50.840
you
brought
up
kind
of
the
hidden.
I
think
that
that
if
I
was
going
to
say
what's
the
hidden
story
of
oil
for
2025,
I
would
say
Brazil
because
Brazil
is
now
over
4
million
barrels
a
day.
I'm
not
going
to
say
they
came
out
of
nowhere,
but
Petrobrás
has
done
a
lot.
Guyana,
to
your
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
02:06.280
point,
ExxonMobil
and
Chevron
and
Hess,
they
have
come
up
considerably.
Let's
focus
though
quickly
in
that
region
on
Venezuela.
We
know
what's
been
happening
with
the
oil
tankers.
If
there
were
military
action
or
Maduro
leaves,
would
we
view
that
as
bullish
or
bearish
for
oil
or
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
02:24.640
maybe
some
combination
of
both
on
the
time
frame?
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
02:28.280
I
mean,
we've
talked
about
this
before,
I
think
a
lot
of
market
participants
will
quickly
start
penciling
in
a
massive
increase
in
Venezuela
and
output.
Like
when
I
covered
Venezuela
a
couple
of
decades
ago
in
the
US
government,
they
were
producing
over
3
million
barrels.
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
02:42.280
They're
now
under
1
million
barrels
of
production.
But
this
is
going
to
be
a
long
way
back
for
Venezuela.
It's
going
to
require
about
10
billion
a
year
in
investment
and
a
stable
security
environment.
And
there
really
is
a
near-term
risk
on
the
already
reduced
supplies.
We
have
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
02:56.680
reports
that
Petróleo
is
already
having
to
shut
in
production
because
of
these
attacks
on
tankers
and
this
de-facto
embargo
declared
by
the
United
States.
So,
the
question
is,
do
we
have
a
chaotic
transition
in
Venezuela
that
puts
current
output
levels
at
risk?
I
would
also
say
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
03:14.400
pay
a
close
attention
to
Russia
because
I
think
part
of
the
softness
in
prices
we've
seen
recently
is
this
anticipation
that
Trump
is
going
to
get
a
deal
that
brings
back
more
Russian
volumes,
removal
of
sanctions.
But
again,
the
Russians
have
basically
said
that
they
are
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
03:31.560
considering
a
deal,
but
they
never
signed
at
the
dotted
line.
And
so,
do
we
really
believe
that
this
is
going
to
be
the
year
where
Vladimir
Putin
makes
significant
territorial
concessions
when
it
comes
to
Ukraine?
Not
clear
at
all.
Guy Adami (Director of Advisor Advocacy)
03:45.040
Alina,
I'm
not
sure
if
you
know
this,
but
Teller
Sheridan
is
a
big
fast
money
fan
and
if
he
doesn't
cast
you
in
season
three
of
Landman,
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
03:53.720
it's
making
a
huge
Guy Adami (Director of Advisor Advocacy)
03:55.200
Of
course
you
do.
You
should
be
on
it.
Maybe
Brian
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
03:58.040
Sullivan
should
be
on
it.
I
was
going
to
say
why
why
Well,
like,
I'm
happy
to
just
wave
in
the
background.
Guy Adami (Director of Advisor Advocacy)
04:03.040
Well,
but
Halima,
I
mean,
come
on.
I
know.
Guy Adami (Director of Advisor Advocacy)
04:06.320
But
my
question
to
you
is
the
following.
First
of
all,
I
think
Yeah
it
was
going
higher
next
year.
But
what
is
the
price
on
the
downside
that
really
puts
our
domestic
producers
in
a
bit
of
a
bind?
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