Renaissance's Neil Dutta on what's ahead for the Fed in 2026 - part 2/2

Well, I'm sort of I think in the minority among my peers, but I don't think there's really much of attention and I think that'll be revealed in the data as we go into into next year. The Fed currently has on the board one rate cut, I think, in the median projection for 2026. And

historically, frankly, it's been a reliable thing to sort of bet against that. And Um, I don't think the goals are really intention. I mean, if you look at what consumers are saying about the job market, uh job finding rates are getting very difficult. So, even though initial

claims are low, it hasn't kept the unemployment rate from going up all year. Uh, and I suspect that continues. Um, the housing market despite lower mortgage rates and Fed cuts, builders are going into the new year with the most unsold inventory since 2010. So, for me it's

housing and labor. Yeah. Um, you know, we're talking about uh the markets. Take a look at home building stocks or Lennar going into the end of the year. It's not necessarily an encouraging thing. Not at all. As labor markets get more slack, I think that will take care of the

inflation that everyone's so worried about.