We don't see a recession in 2026, says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick

2025-12-31_21-41 • 4m 9s
John Fortt (Anchor) 00:00.000
Joining me now is Ryan Deerick. He's a chief market strategist at the Carson Group. Ryan, uh an early happy New Year to you. Um I I know you're bullish here. If I'm looking at this from investors perspective 2026, I'm more concerned about valuations hanging in there than I am
John Fortt (Anchor) 00:15.480
about the fundamentals. Uh feelings. Can feelings stay this good or get any better next year?
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:22.160
Yeah, John, thanks for having me back. Uh happy early early New Year everyone. I know there's football games on so thanks for uh for watching us. You know, I'll get there in one second. I even want to point out last train day of the year down. This is five years in a row now.
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:33.440
The last day of the year was lower. I just I just looked forward came on. That's never happened before. So there's a there's an interesting record. As you look into next year, I mean valuations are stretched. Honestly, we would have had this conversation 12 months ago. We
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:45.720
probably would have said valuations are a little stretched. I think the way we would look at this is yes, this is still a bull market. We get into the weeds of it. It's a global bull market, John, right? Europe, it continues to do well. Emerging markets are trading exactly where
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:59.040
they were uh um like like at the 2007 peak right now. So you could say there's some areas that very well could contend you to have some upside. We think there's a global market is real, but have a diversified portfolio because around the globe, things are not nearly as expensive
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 01:13.320
as the US and I you could have heard that for 20 years. Sometimes things are cheap for a reason. The last comment, it's a global bull market and if you don't like uh some of the parts of the US, we think there's a lot of opportunity around the globe in 2026 as well.
John Fortt (Anchor) 01:25.240
Bull's a little fatter in some other areas of the world. Um up through the last couple Oh, yeah. and whether the domestic markets here were going to continue to outperform the rest of the world. They didn't in 2025 as well as US markets did. So, does that international
John Fortt (Anchor) 01:44.280
outperformance relatively speaking continue in 2026? Does it get more dramatic? Yeah,
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 01:50.080
that's the ultimate question for portfolio manager portfolio managers around the globe. We think it can continue. Again, look at the German DAX. I mean, Germany is extremely important. One of the most important stock markets out there. Earlier this year, Germany broke out just
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 02:04.120
above levels they are trading out in 2007. To us, it's hard to think that this breakout that's taken place around the globe is going to end right away, right? And I get it. 2017 is a perfect example. US did well, but the rest of the globe did great. Everybody said, "Oh, get your
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 02:18.920
diversified portfolios, everyone." And what happened? You should have been in the large cap tech US for the last, you know, several several years. But we do think, you know, four most dangerous words, this time is different, sir John Templeton. Um, I do think this time is
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 02:29.840
different. different, right? We do think that this global recovery reacceleration is real and and this global outperformance, I'm not saying the globe's going to outperform the US by a lot next year like it did this year. Europe outperformed the US by almost 40% this year.
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 02:42.600
That's the most we've seen in like 20 years. But I think there's still a lot of opportunity around the globe,
John Fortt (Anchor) 02:47.040
John. You got gold that had a great year, silver had a great year, domestic stocks had a great year, international stocks had an even better year. Where do you go for balance in 2026 when so many things are doing well. I mean, bonds?
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:03.320
Well, and you mentioned uh bonds are bonds. The Barclays AG was up over 7% this year. That's the best year for bonds since 2020. So I mean, you everywhere you look, I mean, I guess crypto didn't do as well. But everywhere else you look, obviously did really well. I I think our
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:17.720
take is this. Um there's still reasons to think this bull market's alive and well, right? This bull market's in its fourth year here in the United States. You look back in history, John, going back 50 years, once a bull market gets to this point, the average is eight years. The
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:31.640
shortest is five. Now we're not blindly saying just go all in on equities here, right? I do think having a little more commodities. I mean silver, I think it was down 10% today. I mean that's a wild ride. We know it's stretched. But big picture, silver is just breaking out above
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:43.400
levels it was trading at decades ago. Copper levels decades ago. Um these breakouts we think are legit and real. You want to have some commodity exposure. The money we run at Carson Group, we have some very small amount of managed futures as well, commodities. Um we are
Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:56.960
overweight bonds relative to stocks, but again we probably more international developed than just about any other RIA the size of us, and we think it going into 2026, it still makes sense to be overweight equities with that globally diversified portfolio.