Expect a 'jump, slump, and a pump' for S&P 500 in 2026, says Piper Sandler's Craig Johnson
2025-12-31_19-50 • 4m 8s
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:00.000
Let's
begin
this
hour
with
the
technical
side
of
the
markets.
In
a
year
that
has
been
dominated
by
big
tech,
which
part
of
the
AI
trade
can
keep
working
and
which
part
might
be
ready
to
break
down?
Your
next
guest
is
a
market
veteran
technician,
whose
insights
help
traders
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:17.560
separate
noise
from
meaningful
signals.
He's
also
just
a
great
guy.
And
he
joins
us
now
on
New
Year's
Eve
live
from
Minnesota.
Craig
Johnson
of
Piper
Jaffray.
Craig,
we're
really
happy
to
have
you
on
on
the
program
we
know,
listen,
it's
an
interesting
day.
Thanks
for
joining
us.
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:33.480
Uh,
you've
made
so
many
great
calls
in
your
time.
Great
to
have
you
on
the
program.
What
is
the
technical
setup
for
the
macro
market
as
you
see
it
next
year?
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
00:44.480
Hey
Brian,
it
feels
like
we're
making
the
last
call
on
the
last
day
of
the
year
here
today
and
uh
it's
kind
of
a
fun
way
to
end
the
year.
What
our
viewpoint
is
for
2026
coming
up
is
we're
not
looking
for
a
lot
of
upside,
Brian.
As
we
look
at
2026
We
only
see
about
5%
upside.
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
01:02.160
We're
looking
for
7150
on
the
S&P
500.
And
as
we
think
about
the
progression
of
what
2026
is
going
to
look
like,
it's
probably
going
to
be
strong.
We're
probably
going
to
have
a
weak
second
and
maybe
third
quarter
and
then
sort
of
finish
on
a
high
note.
And
from
my
perspective,
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
01:19.200
I'd
call
that
a
jump,
a
slump
and
probably
a
pump
after
you
get
through
the
midterm
elections.
And
from
my
perspective,
it's
going
to
be
an
okay
year,
but
I'm
only
looking
for
about
5%
upside
for
next
year,
Brian.
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
01:31.880
Okay,
let's
get
to
a
jump,
a
pump,
and
a
slump.
It's
one
of
the
reasons
we
love
you,
Craig,
among
many
because
you
always
you're
going
to
just
going
to
lay
it
out
there.
It's
something
to
remember
a
little
bit
catchy.
So,
what
would
be
then
the
pump
if
you're
only
seeing
a
5%
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
01:46.920
gain
for
all
of
next
year?
It
sounds
like
the
first
half
kind
of
your
point
may
be
a
dump.
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
01:57.000
Oh,
that's
good,
Brian.
But,
you
know,
what
I
think
is
ultimately
going
to
be
for
the
The
first
part
of
the
year
is
a
continuation
of
this
AI
trade
we've
been
talking
about,
but
a
little
bit
of
a
shift
in
focus.
Perhaps
not
quite
as
much
about
the
Nvidia's
of
the
world,
some
of
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
02:09.800
the
chips,
but
more
about
the
interconnects
that
are
going
to
take
place.
We're
going
to
need
more
optical
companies,
Brian,
to
actually
connect
these
data
centers
together,
make
AI,
all
these
agents
and
everything
else
that
people
are
going
to
use
to
really
have
faster
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
02:23.400
connectivity
to
make
it
work.
So
I've
been
sort
of
turning
my
focus
to
a
lot
of
these
optical
companies,
companies
like
Sienna.
companies
like
Coherent,
and
companies
like
Corning.
I
look
at
a
company
like,
you
know,
Corning
in
here,
Brian,
and
it's
like
if
we
go
back,
we're
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
02:39.720
probably
going
to
go
retest
the
2,000
highs
on
that
stock.
And
if
we
do,
we've
got
a
nice
20
plus
percent
upside.
And
if
we
look
at
Sienna,
Brian,
I
could
see
another
20,
30%
upside,
even
though
it
was
up
a
lot
here
in
2025.
Wow.
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
02:55.640
Cuz
I'm
these
are
not
beaten
up
stocks
that
have
had
rough
years
and
you
see
a
turn.
To
your
point,
these
stocks
have
been
noticed
by
investors.
Corning
has
done
well.
Their
glass,
their
fiber
optics
that
go
into
all
those
cables
you
talk
about,
Sienna
kind
of
the
same
thing,
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
03:12.080
coherent
a
little
bit
on
that
side.
These
are
names
that
have
already
been
hot.
It
sounds
like
you
just
like
the
charts,
I
guess,
on
these
names?
Well,
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
03:21.160
we
like
the
charts,
but
there's
also
that
connection
theme
that's
going
to
play
out
with
this
as
we
think
about
the
data
centers,
we
think
about
AI
to
really
make
that
next
level
of
AI
work.
And
that's
where
the
first
part
of
what
we're
talking
about
where
you
get
this
sort
of
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
03:35.520
kind
of
quick
jump
up
in
the
market
is
what
we're
ultimately
thinking
here
in
the
first
quarter,
playing
some
of
these
names.
And
then
the
slump
side
of
this
comes
into
play.
As
people
start
focusing
on
politics
in
Washington
and
Yeah
you
start
thinking
about
midterm
election
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
03:54.240
and
those
kind
of
items,
going
to
be
a
lot
of
noise
in
2026.
And
you
probably
don't
see
that
noise
quiet
down
until
that
midterm
election
is
done.
And
that's
where
at
the
end
of
the
year
Brian,
clearing
some
of
that
noise,
things
got
reset.
You
get
that
sort
of
pump
at
the
end
Craig Johnson (Chief Market Technician)
04:05.600
of
the
year
is
what
you
ultimately
get.
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