Mizuho's Jared Holz on what biotech dealmaking looks like in 2026
2025-12-31_19-01 • 2m 41s
? (?)
00:00.000
Let's
ask
Jared
Holtz,
Mizuho's
securities
healthcare
equity
strategist.
Jared,
thank
you
for
joining
us.
Are
you
expecting
to
see
more
M&A
in
the
space?
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
00:09.840
Thanks
so
much
for
having
me.
I
I
am.
I
think
this
this
coming
year
2026
is
going
to
be
pretty
similar
to
2025.
I
think
there
were
about
22
transactions
in
biotech
north
of
500
million.
Um
I
think
that's
roughly
right
and
and
so
yes,
I
think
next
year
will
be
pretty
similar.
? (?)
00:29.680
In
any
particular
space?
I
mean,
the
GLP-1s
have
been
sort
of
the
theme
of
this
year.
Are
you
looking
at
new
trends
in
this
space?
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
00:41.520
I
think
it's
very
difficult
to
predict
where
the
next
deal
is
going
to
come
from
in
terms
of
the
therapeutic
category.
Obviously,
this
obesity
situation
has
been,
you
know,
so
remarkable.
I'm
not
really
sure
there
are
that
many
companies
left
to
be
acquired.
The
one
that
I
keep
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
00:58.320
on
looking
at,
I
think
a
lot
of
investors
are
circling
is
structure
therapeutics
that's
GPCR.
They've
had
data
recently
and
they
seem
like
they
could
be
a
decent
player
in
this
industry
even
if
they
took
5%
of
the
market
if
the
market
estimates
that
the
that
the
entirety
of
the
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
01:16.240
GLP-1
class
is
going
to
be
above
100
billion.
? (?)
01:20.160
What
about
the
efforts
that
the
White
House
is
taking
on
controlling
drug
prices?
There
looks
like
there's
going
to
be
some
arm
twisting
going
on
where
drug
prices
are
concerned.
And
then
you
have
the
subsidies
for
the
Affordable
Care
Act
insurance
expiring
today.
Does
any
of
? (?)
01:37.800
that
affect
where
these
companies
go
for
the
next
year?
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
01:42.600
Well,
I
think
the
drug
pricing
discussion
is
one
of
the
more
interesting
ones
in
all
of
health
care.
This
year
has
been
very
active
in
terms
of
the
industry
coming
to
some
sort
of
negotiations,
some
sort
of
terms
with
the
administration
over
the
price
of
drugs,
either
new
drugs
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
01:58.840
or
existing
My
sense
is
that
the
government's
going
to
walk
back
a
little
bit
from
drug
pricing
as
this
major
issue
if
they
believe
that
a
lot
of
it
has
been
tackled
already.
And
if
that's
the
case,
then
I
think
the
pharmaceutical
industry,
large
cap
pharma,
Lilly,
Pfizer,
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
02:15.640
Merck,
etc.
probably
feel
better
about
how
they're
positioned
in
the
market
in
2026.
That
could
allow
for
more
more
deal-making
as
we
were
talking
about
earlier.
As
far
as
the
subsidies
are
concerned,
I'm
not
quite
sure
how
that's
going
to
work
out.
You're
right,
they
expire
Jared Holz (Health Care Equity Strategist)
02:31.440
today.
There's
probably
There's
a
good
chance
that
there's
some
sort
of
agreement
made
over
the
next
couple
of
months,
but
I
I
don't
think
it's
going
to
have
a
huge
impact
on
biotech
near
term.
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