Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 00:00.040

back to Squat Box. Rick Santelli here live at CME CME HQ for the last data set of 2025. Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27th. Under one Under 200,000. 199,000. Sorry, got a little excited there. We don't have many of these numbers under 200,000. And we know

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 00:25.720

many are going to point to seasonalities due to holiday issues and work week, number of days, but if you just look at it on the surface, 199,000 would be the lowest since it was 192, which was supposedly a distortion for Thanksgiving on the week of what 11/28, and that was the

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 00:44.280

lowest going back to the fall of 22 when it was 189. See how bunched up they are? And then that goes back to 1969 on continuing claims. Back under 1.9 million, 1,866,000 We had a couple under 1.9. Then last week we popped above it. Now we're back below it a bit. Once again, now

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 01:06.600

this is the weekend in December 20th. It really shouldn't have any distortions due to the closure for Christmas. But nonetheless, I'm sure seasonal issues probably are coming into play here. Real quickly, let's just look at the fact that we're at what? 346 on a 2-year. That

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 01:23.800

would be down what? 80 78 basis points for 2025. And here we are at what is it? 413 on a 10-year, that would be down 45, 46 basis points. So these are the way the numbers stand. I think the best way to look at year-end here is the 210 spread. That spread right now hovering at 68

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 01:49.120

basis points is the widest in four years, basically January of 22. And the reason I find that so fascinating is well, just look at the minutes to the last Fed meeting. Everybody's going in different directions. Many are worried about inflation. Many are talking about they do

Rick Santelli (On-air Editor) 02:06.480

still see eases in 2026. If you put that together, what does it spell? Steeping in yield curve. Joe, back to you.