Boneparth: 2026 could be a year of normalization after nonstop headline risk

Speaker 1 00:00.000

So, a lot of talk about the fact that there's no bearish strategies on Wall Street. Everybody's bullish about 2026. I want to get a sense of where you're at because I can't tell if you're bullish or you're bearish because you say next year's a year for normalization. What does

Speaker 1 00:11.080

that mean?

Speaker 2 00:12.040

Yeah, so every turn this year we had some We're ending the year with this silver story. I can't think of a month we didn't have something you know show up that either caused volatility or really ran the headline strong. But 2026, maybe we'll get some calm. I'm not quite sure,

Speaker 2 00:27.920

but I'm hoping for it. I'll tell you that much.

Speaker 1 00:30.000

If things normalize, what does that mean for the tech trade? What does that mean for the broadening that we've seen in December with the equal weight outperforming the market cap weighted S&P? Sure.

Speaker 2 00:38.360

On the side of tech, this is where I think expectations normalized. Meaning that, hey, we're not going to get your deflationary life-changing robot tomorrow. You're going to see money hand over fist, keep going into the CapEx side. So data centers, the chips, the things we need

Speaker 2 00:54.080

to get to the real deflationary effects that we expect from AI. All right.

Speaker 1 00:58.480

Um I also wanted to talk to you about AI on that trade. Uh, reports overnight that ByteDance is going to buy $16 billion worth of chips from Nvidia. So, another infrastructure announcement, another chip announcement. We seem to get one pretty much every week if not every day.

Speaker 1 01:11.520

You say you're all about that CapEx. Exactly, what does that mean? Does that mean that you're you're really uh seeing upside for the companies that are at the infrastructure level like an Nvidia? Yeah. Or do you see margin expansion, profit expansion from the use of AI and from

Speaker 1 01:24.640

the use of that CapEx?

Speaker 2 01:25.840

No, I think we might see the beginnings of that, but it's really about the investment in those chips in those data centers, the compute power that we need to get to the things that will bring on those deflationary effects that everybody is looking for. I think that's where the

Speaker 2 01:38.160

hype was. People think that's coming a little sooner than it really is. So, all eyes on that, almost unlimited capital expense. All right.

Speaker 1 01:45.840

You say the biggest opportunity for next year, it's not an individual stock or an index, you say it's leaning into the volatility. Yeah What does that mean? Should you be leaning into these metal volatility? I mean, should you be buying silver hoping that it all just works out

Speaker 1 01:57.360

even though it's trading at all-time high? Yeah. Um well it's pulled back now, but it was trading at all time high just yesterday. What volatility should you lean into? Because Yeah

Speaker 2 02:09.120

I would think when you're talking to your clients, you're trying to navigate them through volatility. Exactly. So, look, we don't have to go too far back. How about this? Almost everybody forgot that back in April of this year, you had a 20% drawdown in the S&P 500, right?

Speaker 2 02:18.640

That's the opportunity there to get in cheaply, right? That's the buy the dip opportunity. And I think you're going to see this throughout 2026. You had a lot of opportunities throughout 2025 to get your capital in play at lower prices. So, if you have dry powder or you're a

Speaker 2 02:31.760

very disciplined investor, whether that's through dollar cost averaging or just having some kind of system in place. Hey, we're down 20%. What do we do here? Okay, this is a good time to take some of that cash and put it into the market. We're going to want to look out for more

Speaker 2 02:45.200

opportunities like that. Um, they seem to pop up every now and then. Okay.

Speaker 1 02:49.240

With that idea, I just want to go kind of pulling that thread a bit. Real estate, worst performing sector this year. Should you be investing in real estate stocks? Oil's down this year. Should you be investing in oil producers? How do you take advantage of this volatile utility

Speaker 1 03:00.360

and and some of these pullbacks that we're seeing in some parts of the market, um if you're not investing in things that aren't doing well, because most people like to invest in winners, just to be real.

Speaker 2 03:08.960

Yeah, absolutely. So, this is where you have that opportunity to take a look at. How well you're doing on the winners side? You had an amazing year in US equities. International equities actually crushing it this year. And if you're a long-term investor with time on your side,

Speaker 2 03:20.960

and you look at oil, you look at real estate, you know that these are performers perhaps over the long-term or should be a part of your portfolio, there's nothing wrong with taking some of your wins and going for some things things that you know, are not dead forever. They'll be

Speaker 2 03:32.680

back. You know, people

Speaker 1 03:33.520

that were really bullish on healthcare earlier this year, they've been rewarded certainly. So, there's some merit to that idea. Believe it. From the FA Council. From the FA Who Who Who knew? Council Who knew?