Frank Holland (Anchor) 00:00.200
Real estate, the worst performing sector this year, but could a big turnaround be in the works for 2026. Diana Olik takes a look at this week's property play. And what what lies ahead for commercial real estate, Diana?
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 00:12.360
Well, Frank, CRE leaders are slightly less optimistic than they were ahead of 2025, according to a Deloitte survey. 83% of respondents said they expect their revenues to improve by the end of 2026, that compared with 88% last year. Fewer respondents said they plan to increase
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 00:28.400
spending. 68% and said, they anticipate higher expenses in 2026. All right, so let's drill down on specific sectors, starting with office, which seems to have bottomed. Vacancy rates are expected to drop below 18% as more tenants return to the market, according to Colliers.
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 00:44.640
There will continue to be a flight to quality as class A buildings in many markets are now almost fully occupied. Office construction is also at its lowest level in over three decades, that according to Yardi. Now, in multifamily, rents are starting to ease as a record level
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 01:00.040
full of new supply, continues to make its way through the pipeline. Multifamily has led investment sales volume since 2015 and there are no signs of this changing, but its share of total volume is expected to ease somewhat as investors allocate more capital to other sectors like
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 01:15.040
office, data centers and retail according to Collier's. And speaking of data centers, which we all love so much, Deloitte called the sector a clear, bright spot in the US commercial real estate landscape. It pointed to nine major global markets where 100% of the new construction
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 01:30.800
pipeline is already fully pre-leased. Data centers do though face some headwinds in financing, grid capacity, zoning, and even local politics. Now for the outlook on many more sectors including property technology, that's prop tech. Go to the newsletter cnbc.com/propertyplay.
Diana Olick (Senior Real Estate Correspondent) 01:48.360
It's free and it's fun, Frank.
Frank Holland (Anchor) 01:50.880
Uh it is it's it's great, Diana. I mean, these stories have been fantastic, Diana. All of it with this week's property play. Thank you very much, Diana. All right, no direct commercial real estate exposure here on the desk, but I'm going to start with you. A REIT that you own
Frank Holland (Anchor) 02:02.320
Invitation Homes. Just your take on real estate coming up in the new year.
Josh Brown (CEO) 02:07.120
Yeah, Invitation Homes is uh effectively rental single-family homes. It's had a It's had a disappointing year this year. The whole real estate sector has been out of favor and with good reason. I don't see that turning around anytime soon. These are total return plays though. Um
Josh Brown (CEO) 02:24.320
a lot of the return that's going to come from these types of REITs is going to be a combination of what the share price does along with the dividend income. And of course, when I own these things, I am usually setting things up so that I am reinvesting that that uh distribution
Josh Brown (CEO) 02:41.040
income uh which I have been doing on invitation home. So, um the lower price is not fun, but the dividend distribution goes higher and we continue to buy.
Frank Holland (Anchor) 02:50.160
All right, Snap, quick word. You got DR Horton, Pureplay home builder. Uh rates Yeah are they're kind of in a place where people don't really want to move, especially if you have a mortgage under 4%. Your view on real estate coming up next
Jason Snipe (Founder and Chief Investment Officer) 03:00.000
year in this name. Yeah, so I mean D.R. Horton is is roughly positive for the year. It's up around 4%. I think for me the Listen, their cohort is the first time home buyer. That's That's the group that they focus on. You know, buyer incentives had definitely hurt margins. I
Jason Snipe (Founder and Chief Investment Officer) 03:13.720
think that's a story here. You know, affordability, as Josh mentioned, I mean, is just a major problem with um, you know, these types of names and until we can kind of see mortgage rates come down meaningfully, we're probably not going to see some real movement
Frank Holland (Anchor) 03:26.200
there. All right. D.R. Horton, pulling back about a half a percent right now.