Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 00:00.000
All right, let's talk to Stephen Moore about the economy, Trump economics heading into 2026. He is the co-founder of Unleash Prosperity. He's also a former economic advisor to President Trump. Good to see you, Steve.
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 00:15.480
Hi Joe, Merry Christmas, Happy New
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 00:17.080
Year. Yep, same to you. The president says the t-word, tariffs, is the most beautiful word in the English language. Uh, on the other side of that, we had the naysayers forecasting a deeper session starting in April of last year from the tariffs. You're somewhere in between. Uh I
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 00:39.000
I where do you stand on tariffs? You You figure strategically the rationale is that they could rebalance certain parts of global trade in a positive way, but in general you you are not a tariff. You don't think it's the most beautiful word in the English language.
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 00:55.600
Well, Joe, let's start with where we were exactly a year ago when you had all of the blue-chip forecasters, including the Fed and the professional and academic economists. And if you looked at the forecast for the blue-chip, it was at that we would have about 1.9% growth for
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 01:13.600
2025. And we now know with pretty much certainty what the growth rate will be according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board through the through December 23rd. And we we've had growth rates over the last three quarters that have been twice that high. Almost twice that high. So,
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 01:33.240
we've got an economy that is doing much, much better than the economist believed. And part of the reason the economist were so negative on the economy, Joe, is exactly the point you just made, tariffs. Now, you are exactly right. I'm not a big fan of tariffs, but you know what?
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 01:49.080
I am a big fan of some of these trade deals that Trump has been able to pull off over the last 12 months, with Korea, with China, with Japan, with Canada, with the Europeans, all making concessions to the United States in a very positive way. Now Trump saying he's going to bring
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 02:05.600
$8 trillion dollars of capital in the United
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 02:08.200
States from the rest of the world.
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 02:10.560
I know Donald Trump never exaggerates but I think that's an exaggeration. But let's say let's say he's wrong by 90%. Let's say it's only one or two trillion. That's a huge amount of money being invested in the United States. So I like the way he's been able to negotiate better
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 02:23.640
deals for the US. But it does worry me with terrorists because terrorists do have a negative effect on the economy.
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 02:31.840
Right. Negative effect maybe on the economy, although uh there when we when we view tariffs right now and what the economic backdrop is, at the very worst, you have to say that in spite of those, the economy Mhm has been doing very, very well. The president would say because of
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 02:51.440
those and in in certain cases he's right. What what the reason that a lot of those of foreign countries came to the table was because of the tariffs. So Exactly. there is a linkage between there that that people don't They just look purely at what it cost US businesses and it's
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 03:03.480
a tax on the past on the concern. We understand all that but long term in Navarro and Luttig make that case. Long term, we haven't seen maybe some of the positive aspects of tariffs on manufacturing and everything else. But you put in the big beautiful bill and you put in oil
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 03:20.880
and deregulation at $57 and you put in I mean there are some serious tailwinds going into next year. It could It could surprise people, don't you think? Say it could be. You think it would be four next year? I mean that the White House was was talking about five or or even
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 03:38.480
better.
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 03:39.840
Uh, well there again, you know, Donald Trump always exaggerates a little bit about what we're going to get. I think 4% would be a bit of a stretch, but Yeah as long as we can get between 3 and 4%, that's a very strong number. And here's one of the major reasons we want to strive
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 03:55.040
for that higher growth rate. If you get the economic growth rate over 3%, Joe, you start turning the debt curve that we're all concerned about, the national debt and the massive deficits we're running. We want to make sure the economy is growing faster than the debt. That's the
Stephen Moore (Co-founder) 04:11.920
main thing. And if you get to 3.5% to 4% growth, you're going to see exactly that a turning down on that curve that is such a cancer cell in our economy right now.