Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 00:00.000
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are expected to meet today to discuss phase two of the Gaza Sea Fire. Join us now with what to expect. Michael Ohanian, Brookings Institution Director of Foreign Policy Research. And good to see you, Michael. Good
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 00:17.040
morning. Happy New Year. Merry Christmas. Happy holidays.
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 00:20.360
Thank you. Likewise.
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 00:23.200
The are you surprised that it's been it's lasted this long and and is it um Is it misleading to say that? How are things right now in terms of of the the cease-fire?
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 00:36.440
Well, again, happy holidays to you as well and thanks for having me on. I think it's still an extreme long shot if this plan can work. You know the idea of a Palestinian state has been at the core of American diplomacy towards the Middle East for 30 some years, but it's become
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 00:49.400
increasingly unrealistic as the years have gone by. Certainly October 7th, 2023 push things even further in the unrealistic direction. And although Israel now eliminated a large fraction of Hamas. The fundamental idea of having an international force come in and secure Gaza and
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 01:06.960
route to reconstruction and then someday the creation of a Palestinian political authority and even a state. This is wonderful in theory but it's alluded us in practice for a whole generation. And the specifics about disarming Hamas, about finding countries that would deploy
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 01:25.280
military forces into Gaza, about convincing Israel to accept whatever work those international forces might do to disarm Hamas and monitor the ceasefire. Every one of these propositions is still extremely unlikely individually. You put them all together and I I do not expect
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 01:41.640
this plan to work. I would love it if it would. I'd love to be proven wrong, but this is still a very very long shot proposition.
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 01:49.680
So Netanyahu's opposed to a Palestinian say would you say that that his successor or or Israel as a as an entity is opposed to that?
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 02:01.320
I don't believe that Israel supports the idea now as a political entity and I think this was always divisive issue in Israel but since October 7th, 2023 Israeli politics have shifted and the willingness to countenance a territory controlled by Palestinians where a group like
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 02:19.760
Hamas could infiltrate whether the other Palestinians there wanted that to happen or not. This has become I think a very hard thing for Israelis to accept in the aftermath of the terrible tragedy too. two years ago. So, I'm not going to claim that it's impossible forever, but
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 02:34.880
right now Netanyahu is more at the center of Israeli politics on this issue than he used to be. He used to be, right-wing half of the equation. Now he's sort of right down the middle, I'm afraid.
Joe Kernen (Co-anchor of Squawk Box) 02:45.520
Well, President Trump discuss this and will will he urge Netanyahu to be more flexible?
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 02:54.680
He might, but the question is, you know, what will Netanyahu say in reply to try to deflect that pressure. And I think Netanyahu will talk about the things I just mentioned. How do we make sure Hamas disarms? How do we find a way to keep it disarmed? Who's going to do that
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 03:11.240
monitoring? Who's going to do that peace keeping? Netanyahu's going to remind President Trump, I'm sure that no country has yet signed up to be part of that international force in Gaza. And so I think Netanyahu may pay lip service to the theoretical long-term idea of a
Michael O'Hanlon (Director of Foreign Policy Research) 03:25.640
Palestinian state or at least not repudiate it in the White House, the way he has in his own country, but he's going to talk about all these short-term obstacles and requirements as a way to deflect any pressure. That's my expectation.