GDP surprise, AI-driven growth ahead: Silvercrest’s Robert Teeter

? (Anchor) 00:00.000

How likely do you see this happening? Us hitting that 20% mark. Um and what does that say about not only sentiment, but the strength of this market?

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 00:07.040

Yeah, this market's been very strong. We've got a lot of momentum. Uh fourth quarter has seen a lot of great news come into play. Had a little chop earlier in the quarter, but now it seems like we're ending on a very strong note. A lot of momentum. Uh wouldn't be too surprising

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 00:18.040

to hit that 20% mark again.

? (Anchor) 00:19.600

Okay. Not surprised we hit 20% mark this year, but you're actually looking into next year. The second year of President Trump's term and you say historically, at least since 1980, the return on that second year is about 3 3.3 3%. Do you see this setting up the same way? And if

? (Anchor) 00:33.240

so, what are the factors going to lead to that kind of decline in in growth? Obviously, it'll still be a positive gain if it hits the average, but it would be a certain certainly a steep decline.

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 00:41.360

Yeah, so we're looking for gains a bit better than that, but we think it's important for people to keep in mind that second year of the presidential term is typically weak, especially leading into the election. And so next year sets up for this great debate between I think we'll

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 00:52.640

have excellent earnings, but there will be some back and forth and chop on valuation, and we saw some of that earlier this quarter as well. You know, you get great earnings news as you get reactions that are mixed at best and then that momentum eventually kicks in. So I think

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 01:04.760

you could see something similar next year. A lot of volatility earlier in the year maybe ended out the year strong.

? (Anchor) 01:09.680

All right, so you're saying you see more than that 3% but what leads us to have a much more muted return for the year? Is it less profits? Because everybody thinks that AI is going to increase productivity and obviously increase products if you increase productivity. Um is it a

? (Anchor) 01:22.080

resolution on tariffs? I mean, or is it more action on tariffs that creates uncertainty I should say? What leads us to have a more muted return? Because you're saying we're starting off We're at least we're heading into next year very in a very strong way.

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 01:32.680

Yeah, excellent earnings. We think some of the valuation pressure might start to resolve itself a little bit next year. And some of that we started to see again this quarter. Bit of a rotation out of the mega caps into the small caps. The momentum came back into the into the Mag

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 01:45.360

7 and other areas late in the quarter. But next year sets up nicely I think for strong earnings, bit of rotation that takes some valuation heat off the S&P. So maybe gains are a little bit more muted on the mega caps and a little bit more broad based gains throughout the rest of

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 01:58.400

the market.

? (Anchor) 01:58.880

All right, what's your take on this rally? when it comes to the metals. Um, pulling back quite a bit this morning in all fairness. Um, but silver in particular. And we kind of gave you a marked nugget. And I know silver worth more than a barrel of gold for the first time. So,

? (Anchor) 02:09.760

you know, besides COVID since, you know, decades ago. Um, I was talking to some traders. A lot of people see a short squeeze when it comes to silver pushing it higher, but still we do have a lack of supply. So, how are you looking at that?

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 02:20.280

Yeah, there are a lot of fundamental characteristics supporting the gains in silver. Like you say, the the demand side is is really there and very strong. And I think one of the things we've learned the past few years is you really can't fight momentum in this market. When

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 02:30.880

trends get underway, they seem seem to stick around for a long time. We've been in a trend for multiple years in equities. And I think you could see the same thing out of some of the commodity space where there is that underlying fundamental demand, how the gains could continue

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 02:42.200

for a long time. All right.

? (Anchor) 02:43.560

So, is that a a symbol of something that you think investors need to pay attention to if an ounce of silver is worth as much as a a barrel of oil?

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 02:50.720

Well, I think some of it we've seen in terms of the transition from where people are are focused in terms of the uh, you know, the build out and changes on the energy and electricity side. Uh, some of that demand coming from AI or electric cars and other things, you're starting

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 03:03.840

to see some of the shifting demand patterns. I think oil could improve a bit next year as well as the economy stabilizes, some of that tariff pain eases a bit and you get global activity up a bit next year.

? (Anchor) 03:13.200

Right, you're so cool and calm collected about next year. I want to ask you about something that's going to happen on the last trading day of this year, the Fed minutes. Yes. Does that have a big impact potentially on the market? It is backwards looking but we're in a year of

? (Anchor) 03:23.400

delayed data and a lot of other backwards looking data.

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 03:25.600

Yeah, I think what we'll see will be pretty impactful except we've had a bit of a preview of it. We know there's some dissent within the Fed. We know there's this great debate going on. Uh and in my view, it's a debate for a healthy reason. You know, you do have a slowing

Robert Teeter (Chief Investment Strategist) 03:36.640

economy and you do have inflation above 2%. So to me, that says there should be some debate within the Fed over what to do. It's not an easy call here. Uh in my view, you'll get two rate cuts next year and that'll help to support markets throughout the year. 33