Tariffs are increasing prices are dragging American manufacturing: Cato Institute's Scott Lincicome
December 26, 2025 • 4m 3s
? (Host)
00:00.070
she's
joining
us
now
scott
lincecum
vice
president
of
general
economics
at
the
cato
institute
scott
thanks
for
joining
us
this
morning
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
00:07.670
thanks
for
having
me
? (Host)
00:08.990
so
i'm
not
going
to
deal
with
what
president
trump
said
i
but
there
is
a
general
view
scott
that
tariffs
have
not
been
as
bad
as
expected
either
inflation
or
in
growth
terms
what's
your
response
to
that
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
00:23.990
yeah
i
think
there's
two
things
first
there
has
been
some
surprises
related
to
the
tariffs
mainly
related
to
the
lack
of
governments
retaliating
you
know
last
time
trump
imposed
a
bunch
of
tariffs
a
handful
of
different
governments
retaliated
this
time
it's
just
a
it's
less
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
00:43.030
there's
china
there's
canada
and
the
rest
so
that's
been
a
bit
surprising
the
other
surprise
maybe
is
that
importing
companies
that
are
paying
the
tariffs
aren't
passing
these
on
to
consumers
as
much
so
there's
been
less
pass
through
but
overall
the
tariffs
are
doing
pretty
much
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
00:59.230
what
we
expected
they
are
increasing
prices
in
the
united
states
whether
at
the
company
level
or
at
the
retail
level
they
do
appear
to
be
a
drag
on
american
manufacturing
manufacturers
are
reporting
constantly
they're
having
issues
with
raw
materials
pricing
and
with
uncertainty
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
01:19.600
and
that
they
are
a
bit
of
a
drag
on
growth
but
look
this
is
a
the
US
economy
is
is
massive
and
services
mainly
and
not
that
trade
integrated
so
the
idea
that
the
tariffs
alone
were
going
to
cause
a
recession
or
cause
inflation
to
go
nuts
was
really
never
in
the
cards
a
new
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
01:39.190
serious
economists
were
saying
that
? (Host)
01:41.910
let's
get
to
the
particular
contribution
in
this
really
terrific
article
that
you
wrote
scott
which
doesn't
look
at
the
macro
impact
per
se
or
doesn't
look
at
what
particular
tariffs
are
there
but
looks
at
the
complexity
of
just
trying
trying
to
comply
it
is
a
i
don't
know
how
? (Host)
01:59.030
else
to
say
it
a
disaster
and
and
it
walked
me
through
what
you
found
when
you
looked
at
if
you're
a
just
a
regular
business
trying
to
do
something
what
it
takes
to
figure
out
what
the
actual
tariff
is
on
the
product
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
02:12.550
yeah
it
is
incredible
when
you
talk
to
anybody
who's
actually
doing
this
is
in
the
biz
for
logistics
and
tariff
compliance
and
if
they
have
any
hair
left
they're
still
ripping
it
out
still
because
if
you
compare
the
US
tariff
regime
today
to
what
we
had
just
a
few
years
ago
it
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
02:32.150
is
a
night
and
day
difference
in
terms
of
compliance
the
number
of
tariff
regimes
has
gone
from
? (Host)
02:39.230
UC
yeah
we've
got
a
graphic
of
this
scott
i
don't
know
if
you
you
can
see
it
but
there's
what
seventeen
different
tariff
regimes
there
compared
to
exactly
three
in
two
thousand
seventeen
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
02:49.630
exactly
and
the
revisions
of
the
tariff
code
this
year
are
now
into
the
fifties
compared
to
about
three
or
four
back
in
twenty
seventeen
but
the
other
big
thing
is
how
these
tariffs
all
interact
with
each
other
because
the
administration
has
imposed
a
bunch
of
carve
outs
they
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
03:08.710
have
these
trade
deals
they
have
requirements
for
the
aluminum
and
steel
and
copper
content
in
the
imports
so
if
you're
bringing
in
a
washing
machine
or
a
can
of
beer
you
need
to
know
it's
metals
content
certain
tariffs
do
apply
on
top
of
them
of
tariffs
others
don't
so
trying
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
03:28.030
to
figure
this
out
trying
to
map
this
all
out
is
something
we
took
on
at
cato
over
the
fall
and
i
can
tell
you
it's
it's
almost
comical
when
you
look
at
the
difference
again
from
a
very
simple
three
step
regime
back
in
twenty
seventeen
to
this
labyrinth
this
maze
that
doesn't
Scott Lincicome (Vice President of General Economics)
03:46.430
even
capture
all
the
complexity
is
more
than
a
dozen
steps
and
it's
other
thing
that's
important
it's
always
changing
we've
posted
our
original
analysis
in
late
november
we're
going
to
have
to
redo
it
in
the
new
year
because
it's
already
changed
again
justin
just
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