How geopolitical tensions could impact oil prices
December 26, 2025 • 4m 0s
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:00.270
let's
bring
in
again
capital
founding
partner
john
kilduff
and
tortoise
senior
portfolio
manager
rob
thummell
john
doesn't
tell
you
the
story
about
how
much
inventories
out
there
in
the
world
or
at
least
perceived
to
be
out
there
in
the
world
that
were
boarding
venezuelan
some
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
00:13.790
venezuelan
tankers
that
were
starting
to
attack
militant
targets
in
nigeria
and
yet
the
price
of
oil
is
down
right
now
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
00:23.390
yes
and
good
to
see
you
brian
the
the
cushion
the
supply
cushion
out
there
right
now
is
extant
and
it's
it's
hard
to
make
a
dent
in
it
and
the
players
you're
talking
about
venezuela
hasn't
been
a
meaningful
producer
of
crude
oil
for
some
time
now
you
know
every
little
bit
counts
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
00:41.350
because
you
know
we're
priced
for
perfection
to
the
downside
currently
so
if
we
were
to
lose
a
slug
of
oil
from
say
venezuela
nigeria
i
know
you've
been
talking
about
this
morning
and
even
some
more
pressure
on
russia
that
that
would
head
up
and
get
us
maybe
potentially
back
on
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
00:55.230
the
upside
but
save
for
any
real
concerns
any
real
loss
of
volumes
that
the
trajectory
is
just
lower
for
now
until
we
get
a
meaningful
supply
response
from
the
major
oil
producers
saudi
arabia
opec
plus
because
the
the
the
surplus
as
we
go
into
twenty
twenty
six
here
is
going
to
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
01:13.110
be
potentially
remarkable
i'm
not
sure
it's
going
to
come
to
pass
but
the
the
numbers
that
are
out
there
that
are
in
the
market
that
are
being
priced
into
the
barrels
of
oil
right
now
are
are
just
going
to
keep
this
oil
price
low
and
lower
going
into
twenty
twenty
six
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
01:29.790
rob
then
the
question
becomes
does
that
make
oil
and
gas
stocks
uninvested
all
of
the
price
their
underlying
commodities
going
down
does
that
necessarily
mean
the
stocks
will
go
down
because
guess
what
the
last
few
weeks
or
months
price
of
oil
has
gone
down
or
stayed
flat
and
Brian Sullivan (Anchor)
01:45.230
some
of
these
stocks
have
gone
higher
what
do
you
see
Rob Thummel (Senior Portfolio Manager)
01:49.590
yeah
well
well
brian
what
do
i
think
we
see
is
you
know
if
there's
been
amazing
discipline
capital
discipline
in
the
oil
and
gas
sector
and
so
if
you
look
at
the
energy
sector
if
you're
an
investor
and
you're
looking
for
a
free
cash
flow
i
mean
the
the
these
stocks
are
trading
Rob Thummel (Senior Portfolio Manager)
02:00.750
at
you
know
ten
times
their
free
cash
flow
and
and
you
look
at
the
broad
market
it's
trading
a
much
higher
multiple
than
that
and
so
i
think
investors
are
seeing
free
cash
flow
capital
discipline
and
they'll
they'll
they'll
see
the
market
adjust
the
oil
market
or
the
the
Rob Thummel (Senior Portfolio Manager)
02:14.310
companies
to
adjust
to
to
the
lower
oil
price
and
there's
a
lot
of
dividends
out
there
and
and
that's
what
like
a
tortoise
is
the
companies
that
they
can
provide
those
secure
dividends
that
have
been
disciplined
with
their
capital
spending
because
they
can
not
only
pay
their
Rob Thummel (Senior Portfolio Manager)
02:26.590
existing
dividends
but
also
raise
their
dividends
well
into
the
future
well
in
the
future
as
well
? (Anchor)
02:32.350
you
know
john
it's
interesting
we
have
these
big
debates
about
when
and
how
AI
is
going
to
improve
productivity
in
corporate
america
but
look
no
further
perhaps
than
the
oil
fields
here
in
the
US
and
even
as
you
have
recounts
coming
off
you
have
a
company
like
baker
hughes
? (Anchor)
02:47.550
beginning
to
add
more
AI
to
the
process
and
productivity
of
the
wells
is
going
up
so
what
is
that
doing
to
the
cost
to
pull
a
barrel
out
of
the
ground
here
in
the
US
and
what
does
that
mean
for
production
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
03:01.180
well
it
keeps
getting
driven
down
you've
seen
production
do
nothing
but
go
up
even
in
a
relatively
low
price
environment
i
mean
to
be
have
oiled
even
in
the
sixties
and
see
the
kind
of
advances
that
we've
seen
in
in
US
oil
production
again
just
just
remarkable
because
it's
not
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
03:16.420
even
not
even
just
AI
technology
and
the
ability
to
find
now
where
the
oil
is
more
than
ever
before
but
also
the
technology
to
get
it
out
of
the
ground
they've
gone
from
from
water
to
now
they've
moved
on
to
gel
there
there's
other
technology
's
being
employed
by
the
big
majors
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
03:32.990
like
exxon
chevron
and
as
was
just
pointed
out
when
you
talk
about
the
big
majors
like
that
they
have
the
money
to
to
cover
their
dividend
they
can
they
have
the
money
to
cover
their
cost
of
production
in
the
in
the
shale
patches
that's
really
paying
off
for
them
now
you're
John Kilduff (Founding Partner)
03:48.030
getting
paid
to
wait
there
and
look
the
the
oil
industry
is
and
the
oil
market
has
a
history
of
tumult
so
you're
getting
paid
to
wait
it's
an
event
risk
play
on
top
of
being
a
value
play
in
in
my
estimation
here
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