? (?) 00:00.670
with the busy and all important holiday season for retail set to wrap up let's take a look and see how the sector did bring in janniff and jay rogers niffin worldwide CEO jan great to see you
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 00:10.830
great to see you too and you know i'm not the economist but i can tell you if we had four percent GDP growth regularly we sure as heck wouldn't have to worry about retail sales or jobs or wages yeah
? (?) 00:22.230
but well we'll see if we do but for now the holiday season does look to be stronger jan i'm just wondering how retails are retailers are actually faring even if sales are up how are their margins doing do they have to discount to bring in those sales
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 00:35.800
margins will be just as good or better than last year because all that promotion you're seeing out there is planned promotion i have to work pretty hard now to find unplanned promotion among the major retailers they've done an extraordinarily good job with inventories they've
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 00:52.750
handled the tariffs really well they're going to have solid gross margins on the sales they get and they're going to get four percent plus on sales i'm using four and a half to five but i'm the kind of most optimistic guy on the street but you know even the NRF saying three
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 01:10.350
seven to four two and haven't been wildly optimistic and if you look across the board other people making predictions they've all come up and i don't think we'll see that come at the expense of promotion we're going to see solid gross margins we're going to see a really good
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 01:27.710
christmas it will be as good or better than last year from the point of view of profitability and it's going to be four percent or more better on sales you can't ask for more than that when everything has been thrown at the consumer this year and they have just shrugged off and
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 01:43.270
continue to spend where
? (?) 01:45.430
do you see the surprises jan in terms of upside to expectations or downside well
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 01:53.280
i think i've got a lot of companies that i really am in favor of if you want to look across the board i'm a big fan of dicks right now because i think they're winning the game they're also one of the five best retailers in the country walmart 's just gaining market share rapidly
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 02:08.320
of with a hundred thousand dollar plus customer especially so that's great for them that's tough for targets so gee can't not like walmart but best buy is going to be really interesting because we're seeing better sales and electronics than we ever thought we would you'll see
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 02:21.630
ross dress for less do really well because they're in the right spot and they're doing a lot more for the customer than they did last year and they're doing a lot better job with brands and they're doing a lot better job with advertising and you'll see good numbers out i think
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 02:37.310
all three urban outfitters divisions because people really are buying clothes and they're buying actual real clothes not just aloe and vary and lululemon and on running they're buying closed clothes so you'll do well tapestry will do well so it's it's it's been a pretty good
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 02:55.830
christmas across the board even the upper end which has been kind of a struggle right bruno brunello cuccinelli and LVMH and hermes and those companies are going to do pretty well but when you come down to the next level like PVH urban outfitters aritzia ralph lauren especially
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 03:14.950
it is a ralph lauren christmas they're going to do really well so it's it's surprisingly strong out there given what's going on and and apparel is really benefiting so even when you get to like the smaller players that are actually in a good niche you're going to see good
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 03:33.550
numbers out of tractor supply and boot barn and casey 's general store it's just going to be a healthy christmas pretty much across the board but they'll be losers i don't think target 's doing very well i'm not a big fan of lowe's despite the fact the markets kind of there you
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 03:51.390
know we're going to see some some struggles but you know levi 's will do well we'll see a good number nike 's going to do they're really our tourney even though you guys yes i'm wearing on running head to toe and carl may be an aloe of rory but nike is coming back and you're
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 04:12.070
right the problem is china that's the biggest issue they've got and direct to consumers the next biggest issue those need to turn for everybody to get excited but my long customers take a look at nike and go hey it looks like a company that's turning around the short guys
Jan Kniffen (CEO) 04:29.310
they're going we need to see something out of china but yeah it's it's pretty good out there right now