Leslie Picker (Reporter) 00:00.350
it was a record close for the SP today making its thirty ninth of the year and the major averages are also on track for their third straight year of gains could this momentum spill over into the new year or are there risks that are not priced in yet joining me now is patrick
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 00:15.030
rossetti from rose advisors at hightower patrick frizzetti thank you for being here so you think inflation is here to stay for the next couple of years and it's not exactly priced in why is that and how do you think the market will ultimately react
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 00:32.010
yeah sure thanks for having me leslie so twenty twenty five was a good year for risk assets the question is how long can it last you know equity valuations are pretty expensive credit spreads are tight and as rick mentioned you know there's still some uncertainty over the labor
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 00:47.470
market you know no higher no fire and i i say inflation is not priced in i i think it's going to be very hard to get to the two percent target and it really comes down to structural globalization and protectionism that upward pressure on inflation will outweigh any downward
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 01:06.830
disinflation disinflationary pressure that perhaps things like AI may provide in the near future
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 01:12.710
so do you think the key read through for the markets there is maybe you won't get as many rate cuts as you're currently counting on and therefore you know it will kind of reassess the cost of capital there or do you think it's the inflation picture is so risky that you could
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 01:28.350
even see a rate hike in twenty twenty six
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 01:31.110
i don't think we'll get a rate hike but i would just say with the underlying environment it makes it challenging to cut rates and if they do it means we may have a steeper yield curve because i don't see the long end of the curve going down and i actually think the long end of
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 01:45.550
the curve could ultimately go up in in you know if we do have those unexpected inflationary numbers come forth you know at some point in twenty twenty six
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 01:54.710
all right and another key theme that obviously everyone 's talking about talking about this year expected to continue talking about next year is the AI theme what do you think the market needs to see in twenty twenty six if this year was the story about efficiencies and and
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 02:10.190
seeing some sort of ROI on all of the investment what do you think the market needs to see in twenty twenty six in order to further generate upside in some of these trades
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 02:20.550
yeah so the market rewarded all of this AI capex spend in twenty twenty five right and we all know look CEO 's love to spend so they had no problem if they thought it was going to increase their share price of course they they could put that money to work and i think as we move
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 02:33.830
forward twenty six and twenty seven i think the market 's going to look to see what the return that investment is going to be eventually and i think that that's what the market is going to look for and it's become more competitive right so as with the increased capec spend we
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 02:47.190
know we're going to see competitive you know dollar we're going to see additional dollars spent worldwide look at a place like china they're clearly going to spend on AI and in the old adages you know when china walks into the room profits walk out so i think it's it's going to
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 03:04.670
be it's going to put pressure on the return paradigm as to AI capex spend
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 03:09.790
yeah steve kovac did a great story yesterday about the commoditization of some of these models and that theme for twenty twenty six outside of AI though you like healthcare for twenty twenty six that's been a pretty beaten down sector until recently why why do you think it's
Leslie Picker (Reporter) 03:24.470
poised to prosper next year
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 03:26.710
so two reasons we're in a midterm election year and if we look at the eleven of the last twelve or thirteen midterm election cycles we've seen healthcare outperform so that's one reason i'd also say you know we talk about a i capex spend you know with healthcare and particularly
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 03:41.950
pharmaceuticals i think they're ultimately going to benefit think about this sector you know a lot of these companies have relatively speaking low and you know they're going to benefit from you know the development development and optimization of drug discovery as they use you
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 03:56.670
know things like a i so i think that that's going to improve that sector but most importantly it's just a relative ball game and i think going into next year they're undervalued i think as we go through the year maybe we have some increased volatility being a midterm election
Patrick Fruzzetti (Partner & Managing Director) 04:10.670
year they'll they'll they would be a good allocation in any portfolio