There's certainly a lot of bifurcation going on in consumer spending, says Visa's Michael Brown
December 23, 2025 • 3m 23s
? (?)
00:00.110
economic
concerns
don't
seem
to
be
having
a
large
impact
on
holiday
shopping
this
season
it's
going
to
a
new
visa
analysis
it
shows
that
retail
sales
increased
by
four
point
two
percent
year
over
year
across
all
payment
types
that
includes
cash
and
checks
and
joining
us
right
? (?)
00:14.310
now
with
a
lot
more
on
that
report
is
michael
brown
principal
US
economist
for
visa
what
was
the
biggest
surprise
for
you
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
00:24.350
it
was
just
the
resilience
of
consumers
as
you
pointed
out
we
have
seen
sort
of
can
soft
much
softer
consumer
sentiment
and
and
consumer
confidence
measures
relative
to
the
same
time
last
season
yet
consumer
spending
held
up
now
you
might
be
thinking
this
is
all
due
to
inflation
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
00:41.550
right
but
even
if
we
adjusted
our
four
point
two
percent
number
for
that
shopping
basket
holiday
goods
prices
we'd
still
be
up
about
two
point
two
percent
in
inflation
adjusted
terms
? (?)
00:55.990
in
terms
of
of
of
spending
though
i
think
we're
all
trying
to
figure
out
everyone
talks
about
the
sort
of
tale
of
two
cities
are
you
seeing
a
sort
of
a
high
low
situation
happening
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
01:07.430
so
i
describe
it
less
as
a
high
low
but
there's
certainly
a
lot
of
bifurcation
going
on
in
the
consumer
spending
story
just
look
at
the
atlanta
fed
wage
tracker
data
as
an
example
bottom
twenty
five
percent
of
income
earning
households
they're
still
seeing
positive
wage
growth
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
01:24.310
but
it's
nowhere
near
where
it
was
stake
just
twelve
months
ago
and
i
think
these
underlying
cross
currents
are
certainly
creating
this
divergent
not
just
in
income
but
also
in
the
resulting
spend
behavior
that
we're
seeing
across
the
income
spectrum
? (?)
01:42.180
in
terms
of
you
know
regionally
are
you
seeing
anything
specific
or
even
by
industry
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
01:50.230
well
what
i
would
say
is
by
industry
if
we
kind
of
look
at
retail
or
just
goods
versus
services
we
continue
over
the
the
last
several
years
actually
we've
seen
this
continual
pivot
of
more
experiences
more
services
spending
so
this
is
more
prominent
as
you
can
imagine
among
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
02:09.350
younger
consumers
but
we
see
you
know
greater
interest
in
travel
around
the
holidays
and
those
sorts
of
things
rather
than
so
many
things
or
stuff
and
as
a
result
we've
we've
seen
a
rise
in
in
gift
cards
and
and
gifting
of
gift
cards
to
help
enable
some
of
that
service
spend
as
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
02:27.270
well
? (?)
02:30.070
and
then
finally
if
you
were
to
try
to
project
out
which
is
maybe
the
most
important
part
about
this
the
next
twelve
months
what
do
you
see
well
as
we
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
02:38.070
look
ahead
to
next
year
there's
a
couple
of
factors
that
i
think
will
sort
of
determine
the
contours
of
consumer
spending
early
next
year
we're
expecting
tax
refunds
to
be
slightly
larger
than
they
were
over
the
last
several
years
due
in
part
to
the
tax
cut
package
that
was
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
02:52.910
passed
earlier
this
year
that
should
help
lift
consumption
early
in
the
year
and
as
the
year
progresses
we're
expecting
more
modest
inflation
still
be
present
but
not
nearly
at
the
rates
that
we're
seeing
today
and
along
with
some
federal
reserve
rate
cuts
we
think
the
Michael Brown (Principal US Economist)
03:08.950
combination
of
those
factors
will
be
supportive
of
consumer
spending
growth
real
growth
probably
somewhere
around
two
point
eight
percent
on
a
year
on
year
basis
as
we
go
into
next
year
that's
up
slightly
from
what
we
estimate
this
year
at
about
two
point
six
percent
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