? (Host) 00:00.350
the road ahead for this bull market it's welcome in our panel for some answers trivariates adam parker new edge wealth cameron dawson and requisite capitals brynn talkington both adam and brynn or CNBC contributors it's great to have everybody with us as i said brynn we are
? (Host) 00:15.990
heading for another record close on the S and P five hundred how do you feel about things as this end of year approaches we're going to put another great year in for stocks and we look ahead to a new one
Bryn Talkington (Managing Partner) 00:28.150
yeah i mean who would have fought back in the dark days of april that we would be where we are today so i think investors who sat still through that period of time have been rewarded and i think going into next year i mean we still have strong earnings not only in the four
Bryn Talkington (Managing Partner) 00:45.950
ninety three but also in the mag seven i think rates are coming down a little bit more globally things are doing well and so i think unless we get an exogenous event like the court saying we can't do tariffs which would be a mess we'll say to undo that i think we will have some
Bryn Talkington (Managing Partner) 01:03.670
volatility next year but it looks like you have to stay invested and buy by risk
? (Host) 01:08.790
OK i mean that's pretty clear story adam parker does it make sense
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 01:14.090
yeah hi guys great to see everyone yeah look i think growth is gonna be pretty good and i think like like bryn pointed out the giga cap stocks the trillion and above club they're all gonna grow pretty strongly so if you're negative i think it comes down to maybe a view that the
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 01:29.250
multiples can't expand much and i think next year is going to be that transition in my mind where we saw a lot of multiple expansion previously and now we need to see the earnings come through so i don't think they'll be quite as much upside as we've seen the last three years
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 01:42.720
but i still think the risk reward is skewed to the positive for for equities
? (Host) 01:47.710
does it have to adam be an exogenous event that wrecks the bulls story that that's the picture that brynn paints what do you think
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 01:57.670
i don't know if if you know if it has to be exogenous i think i think the issue i i guess i feel like the fed parts a little wobbly or that i did a year ago look i mean we've talked about it before but the poly market and and you know the probabilities sort of look like maybe
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 02:13.470
they're going to cut one more time i think most people i talk to think it'll be two or three more but no matter what they're kind of closer to being done than not on the front end so i think the the the argument really comes down to will multiples continue to be supported
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 02:27.120
because of balance sheet expansion or because of fiscal stimulus or tax stuff all that's pretty well or yeah but on on the on the on the multiple side yeah i think about the market as price to earnings you know ratio times the earnings so i think the growth side looks pretty
Adam Parker (Founder & CEO) 02:42.430
good that's why we're up today GDP et cetera i think you'll see productivity from AI i think the multiple sides trickier that that's why that's why i think there's a little bit less upside for the overall
? (Host) 02:51.790
market cameron is the story pretty clean as we go into twenty six
Cameron Dawson (Chief Investment Officer) 02:56.550
well i think that the multiple side of things is very important because that was very clear as we look at where we started this year at about twenty two and a half times forward and we're ending this year at about twenty two and a half times forward so it's all been driven at
Cameron Dawson (Chief Investment Officer) 03:10.870
least for this S and P five hundred by this earnings growth and there is high expectations for earnings growth going into twenty twenty six if you break down consensus it's sitting at about fourteen percent growth for next year and it has two hundred basis points of margin
Cameron Dawson (Chief Investment Officer) 03:26.110
expansion already baked in as well as an acceleration of revenue growth so it's not something that we necessarily want to bet against we are optimistic that there's going to be efficiency gains in this economy but to argue that the bar is low is really hard to do so we think how
Cameron Dawson (Chief Investment Officer) 03:42.830
this translates is that when you have a high bar for expectations and high valuations it just makes you more susceptible to volatility as you move through the years simply because there's less room to absorb those kinds of exogenous house