No recession ahead, strong breadth supports continued gains: Carson Group’s Detrick

Frank Holland (Anchor) 00:00.150

speaking of the holiday spirit i follow you on social media ryan you were posting about the fact that we didn't get a santa claus rally the last two years but we've never missed three in a row you're all it sounds like you're almost guaranteeing a salad santa rally this year you

Frank Holland (Anchor) 00:12.590

say these seven days of the santa rally that start tomorrow technically you clarified it have the highest probability be of higher out of any other seven days of the year so are you are you predicting a santa claus rallies coming

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:23.510

yeah you know i can't make guarantees but no frank we think it's likely you know these next seven days again starting tomorrow higher more than seventy seven percent of the time if you look at all the seven day combinations out there none are more likely to be higher and then

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:37.230

like you lay on we were lower the last two santa claus rallies marcus did OK let's be clear there but i think you know it makes sense when you look at what you just talked about before it came on not a lot of volume not honestly a lot of news we we still were oversold from you

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 00:51.430

know just last wednesday this upward bias we think makes sense last comment again we've never seen santa not come three years in a row maybe this year could be the first i don't think it will be i think we probably get moved back to new highs which like you just said aren't

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 01:04.990

really that far away and kind of put a cherry on top to the end of a pretty solid year for investors alright

Frank Holland (Anchor) 01:10.710

ryan i know you have to hedge but if you look on your social media account you seem all but certain it's going to happen so i think a lot of people are waiting again that period officially starts tomorrow alright i want to talk about something we just hit on a minute ago the vix

Frank Holland (Anchor) 01:21.510

actually had its year low what does that do for some of the riskier parts of the market is it significant on a holiday shortened week

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 01:28.180

it is significant i think it makes sense there's not there i mean state the obvious there's not a lot of volume going on historically the round holidays there's there's little movement i think that's where we are at the same time we're flirting with all time highs and you look

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 01:40.180

historically the vix does tend to have kind of muted moves in december i don't think it's too big of a shock and the bottom line i don't think it's bearish it'll be very clear you know maybe the vix was down around ten or something maybe you get a little more concerned but i

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 01:54.020

think it makes sense when you look not just us i mean you've been all over this frank globally we're still seeing you know new highs we're still seeing a global bull market and honestly not a ton of volatility yes there's more volatility in emerging markets but developed markets

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 02:06.350

different parts of the world things are pretty calm right here and you know i think it's really a positive side i'd rather have a lower vix and a higher vix let's put it that way because lower vix is usually mean you're in a bullish trend which i still think we're in alright

Frank Holland (Anchor) 02:17.710

so i think we're in a bullish trend we're gonna get GDP later today what are your general thoughts about GDP and i also want to talk to you about cyclical we're going to dig into materials a bit later in the show but raymond james out with a note basically saying we have to wait

Frank Holland (Anchor) 02:29.470

and see if the the economic data supports a cyclical rally and cyclicals have been underperforming for the last two years according to raymond james obviously financial is hitting an all time high does GDP does that create a bigger rally in these cyclicals whether it be

Frank Holland (Anchor) 02:41.070

financials materials industrials just showing if it meets estimates of course showing strength in the economy and giving investors the confidence to put their money in those sectors

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 02:49.590

i think it will you know like you just said the first half of this year is everybody talked about GDP up two point two percent half of that came from AI and capex we get it but the second half of this year things have really broadened out and that's a that's a positive thing i

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:01.430

mean you know we over three percent GDP growth second half of this year who really had that on their bingo card obviously april when we had all the tariff stuff going on now to to get to kind of together we do cyclicals right we're overweight equities yes but you look at

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:13.950

industrials financials parts of technology i know techs had a big pullback but starting to come back here those are areas we think that this is global economy does better and reaccelerates next year we like and then one more comment on this look at something like copper silver

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:27.670

palladium i mean it's hard for us to think those areas will be breaking out the multi year highs or all time highs if the global economy potentially wasn't reaccelerating we think the market is sniffing out again a better growth and that's why we do like those cyclical areas

Ryan Detrick (Chief Market Strategist) 03:40.510

over defenses as we head into twenty twenty six

Frank Holland (Anchor) 03:42.830

you know as you mentioned gold and silver again hitting new all time highs yesterday is that a bullish sign for the US markets and you're talking about the markets or is that a more bullish sign for maybe developing markets international markets the fact that we're seeing that

Frank Holland (Anchor) 03:54.430

kind of rise in commodities