Market has to broaden from megacap tech for interest rates to fall, says Smead Capital's Bill Smead
December 23, 2025 • 4m 48s
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
00:00.230
joining
us
now
is
bill
smith
he's
the
chief
investment
officer
at
smeet
capital
management
bill
it's
great
to
see
you
again
welcome
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
00:07.270
hey
great
to
be
with
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
00:08.950
you
jump
in
here
you
can
pick
the
housing
piece
first
if
there's
anything
in
that
last
discussion
that
you
know
you
wanted
to
chime
in
on
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
00:15.830
well
i
i
don't
want
to
pick
on
your
prior
guests
too
much
but
somebody
once
said
if
you
put
all
the
economists
end
to
end
you'd
never
get
anywhere
understood
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
00:25.350
but
where
so
do
you
come
down
as
as
in
this
is
an
economy
that
can
be
strong
with
productivity
and
low
inflation
or
no
that's
what
the
president
wants
or
thinks
can
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
00:33.990
happen
the
the
most
productive
multiplier
effect
in
all
of
economics
in
the
united
states
economy
is
home
building
and
household
formation
so
my
opinion
it's
more
important
how
soon
taylor
swift
has
a
baby
is
more
important
to
the
economy
than
what
what
the
fed
does
the
greatest
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
01:00.360
fed
stuff
right
so
so
think
about
it
the
president
has
suppressed
gasoline
prices
to
give
people
the
feeling
when
they
go
to
the
gas
pump
that
they're
getting
a
deal
while
the
strategic
petroleum
reserve
is
empty
if
we
ever
actually
had
to
fight
somebody
we
would
have
no
oil
in
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
01:19.150
the
tank
and
and
then
hope
you
ignore
the
fact
that
when
you
go
to
your
favorite
restaurant
you're
paying
thirty
percent
more
than
two
years
ago
right
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
01:28.030
even
if
taylor
has
a
baby
bill
is
that
going
to
help
people
start
families
afford
housing
give
the
economy
the
kind
of
kickstart
you're
envisioning
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
01:37.350
well
you
you
get
out
of
an
apartment
when
when
you
have
a
a
baby
when
when
when
the
baby
's
crying
you
don't
want
your
next
door
neighbor
banging
on
the
wall
and
and
saying
gee
can
you
get
him
to
be
quiet
and
the
answer
is
no
you're
not
you're
not
supposed
to
get
a
baby
to
be
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
01:53.590
quiet
so
so
the
the
the
the
the
situation
is
that
the
trump
administration
has
been
brilliant
in
pulling
all
these
levers
and
attempting
to
make
all
these
relatively
violent
short
term
disruptions
but
the
most
important
thing
to
the
economy
is
too
much
money
chasing
too
few
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
02:18.800
goods
and
one
of
your
economists
made
a
great
point
and
i
see
this
in
my
my
neighborhood
there
are
ten
million
dollar
homes
being
built
in
phoenix
like
hotcakes
but
yet
the
the
mortgage
rates
are
too
high
to
convince
someone
one
that
has
a
three
or
four
percent
mortgage
to
trade
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
02:41.110
up
right
to
another
home
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
02:42.670
which
is
which
so
of
primary
mortgage
holders
the
journal
had
this
stat
this
week
they
said
fifty
four
percent
of
people
have
a
mortgage
at
three
or
four
percent
i
think
it
was
so
what
would
you
envision
i
mean
are
these
policy
changes
going
to
be
able
to
rectify
this
whole
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
02:55.470
situation
or
no
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
02:57.550
no
we
have
a
kind
of
a
strange
theory
and
it
has
to
do
with
why
does
willie
sutton
rob
banks
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
03:05.270
that's
where
the
money
is
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
03:06.990
and
that's
where
the
money
is
so
if
the
fed
or
anybody
else
wants
to
get
long
term
interest
rates
down
money
has
got
to
go
from
where
it
is
which
is
in
the
eight
largest
cap
stocks
in
the
S
and
P
five
hundred
index
to
something
that
that
that
would
to
buy
bonds
that
that's
where
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
03:31.480
the
money
is
and
it's
not
in
long
bonds
so
they
cut
the
short
rates
and
the
and
the
long
rate
goes
up
the
only
way
you're
going
to
get
long
rates
down
is
break
the
mania
for
the
S
and
P
five
hundred
passive
index
right
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
03:47.670
that's
the
the
only
way
you're
gonna
get
long
rates
higher
right
well
well
the
whole
bonds
they're
kind
of
unch
i
mean
you're
doing
OK
you're
not
doing
great
so
people
would
have
to
think
i'm
gonna
make
a
lot
of
money
or
the
alternatives
are
not
gonna
look
that
great
and
i
don't
Kelly Evans (Anchor)
04:00.270
think
the
president's
interested
in
either
one
of
those
outcomes
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
04:03.350
no
that's
right
you're
absolutely
right
so
the
answer
is
from
a
historical
perspective
stocks
have
been
fantastic
for
really
fifteen
years
off
and
on
with
only
relatively
short
bear
market
interruptions
and
and
when
people
get
afraid
of
stocks
that
is
when
long
term
rates
will
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
04:26.670
go
down
people
seek
safety
and
the
equity
risk
premium
is
completely
out
of
line
and
so
are
somebody
mentioned
yesterday
or
the
day
before
that
you
you
an
ounce
of
silver
is
is
worth
more
than
a
barrel
of
oil
correct
and
i
think
that's
only
happened
once
or
twice
in
the
last
Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer)
04:47.230
forty
years
or
something
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