Evercore ISI’s David Palmer explains why he’s watching the casual dining space heading into 2026
December 23, 2025 • 2m 4s
? (Host)
00:00.070
it
has
been
a
choppy
year
for
the
restaurant
business
and
the
food
industry
as
high
hopes
early
in
the
year
were
dashed
by
some
weak
consumer
sentiment
and
the
cost
of
tariffs
value
deals
and
discount
campaigns
have
helped
turn
some
brands
around
but
many
are
still
struggling
? (Host)
00:13.790
here
to
discuss
what
to
watch
for
in
the
next
year
is
david
palmer
senior
managing
director
at
evercore
isi
david
good
to
see
you
happy
holidays
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
00:21.910
thank
you
happy
holidays
to
you
is
? (Host)
00:24.150
this
does
this
all
rotate
around
commodity
inflation
is
that
basically
the
bottom
line
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
00:29.660
that's
going
to
be
one
factor
you
you
see
that
certainly
with
the
company
operated
guys
the
fast
casual
names
like
chipotle
but
particularly
the
stake
players
like
texas
roadhouse
people
are
going
to
be
thinking
about
beef
prices
when
will
those
come
off
the
top
it
looks
like
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
00:43.860
there's
already
some
signs
of
demand
destruction
in
supermarkets
which
should
should
help
maybe
the
help
the
year
end
better
for
names
like
texas
roadhouse
but
also
darden
that
pay
a
lot
in
terms
of
beef
but
it's
really
going
to
come
down
to
that
that
what
teed
up
in
in
the
in
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
01:00.790
that
previous
segment
which
is
what
it's
going
to
be
the
net
effect
to
the
middle
income
consumer
from
all
of
these
things
and
clearly
there's
some
people
motivated
to
get
the
consumer
in
the
game
here
by
basically
the
second
quarter
of
twenty
six
? (Host)
01:13.550
what
are
some
of
your
favorites
for
twenty
six
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
01:16.190
yep
well
right
now
the
dining
space
looks
good
some
of
those
factors
that
we
talked
about
net
of
GLP
ones
which
should
be
a
headwind
you
mentioned
student
loans
some
of
those
things
might
be
more
of
a
headwind
into
the
fast
food
space
but
casual
dining
which
is
more
of
a
treat
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
01:34.430
doesn't
seem
to
be
as
affected
by
some
of
those
negatives
but
also
has
the
benefit
of
the
early
tax
relief
that
we're
going
to
see
so
a
name
like
brinker
for
example
that's
executing
well
is
playing
well
in
value
we
like
that
name
darden
we
like
as
well
so
those
are
that's
a
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director & Head of Restaurant and Food Producers Team)
01:50.550
great
starting
point
and
then
there's
going
to
be
some
value
players
that
do
pretty
well
within
the
fast
food
place
not
bad
in
terms
of
garp
names
names
like
mcdonald's
but
i
would
stick
with
the
casual
dining
space
as
a
starting
point
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