Joe Kernen (Co-Anchor of Squawk Box) 00:00.070
well two thousand twenty six could see some big changes for the IPO market forcing some moves by some of the biggest players leslie picker joins us now with the story hey leslie
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 00:10.790
hey joe good morning yeah for years many of the biggest private AI companies think open AI and throat big databricks have shunned the public markets but bankers say that may need to change next year as the capex cycle crosses a threshold where private only financings just become
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 00:26.950
too constraining
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 00:28.150
mackenzie research shows that by twenty thirty data centers equipped to handle AI processing loads are estimated to require more than five trillion dollars in capex private AI companies have been able to spend tens of billions of dollars a year on capex but this next phase will
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 00:44.630
require more funding and likely that's through the debt markets and it's more efficient and less expensive to access a wide range of credit
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 00:52.750
as a public company now there are a few reasons for this first having a public equity gives lenders more certainty on real-time valuation which can allow a company to take on more debt with tighter spreads essentially lower costs of capital here additionally suppliers and
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 01:07.470
partners typically sign ten to fifteen year meaning counterparties want to be sure there's financing durability over the long term
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 01:15.630
now to be sure there is this looming question out there about how many of these companies can go public at the same time and whether the market will be able to absorb all of that supply for example if open AI raised at a trillion dollar valuation which is what's been reported
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 01:32.110
out there and floated just ten percent of the company in an offering that alone would be well more than all three hundred and forty IPO 's raised in the US this year combined joe
Joe Kernen (Co-Anchor of Squawk Box) 01:45.670
you could probably make the case leslie that that the shrink in the public the availability of of public shares has been unbelievable over the past twenty years for a lot of reasons why why companies did not want to be public this could you could see you know many many more
Joe Kernen (Co-Anchor of Squawk Box) 02:03.750
shares available in the public marketplace and still not be what you would the pendulum would only be about halfway back to where it was years ago
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 02:13.050
no you're spot on and the solution in washington has really been to fix the private markets find ways for retail investors individual investors high net worth investors to get access to some of these companies before they go public because they've been staying private so long
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 02:28.410
and the thought has been oh well the individual investor has really missed out on kind of that growth phase of a company 's lifespan so why don't we find a way to kind of democratize the private markets in order to give them access but this could be kind of that threshold that
Leslie Picker (Senior Finance and Banking Reporter) 02:42.830
really changes the game for going public next year
Joe Kernen (Co-Anchor of Squawk Box) 02:45.710
it's hard to be there are reasons not not to be public i blame the lawyers as i always do for everything but