? (Anchor) 00:00.230
here with his thoughts as peter sepino senior analyst at wolfe research and peter do you think this increases the odds that paramount actually wins
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 00:07.980
it definitely increases the odds these horses look like they're neck and neck paramount with today's news has given the warner board more of the certainty that it's been asking for although we're not convinced that it's offered enough to get this done
? (Anchor) 00:23.660
remind me again what your thoughts are about kind of who this makes most sense with is it paramount or is it netflix
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 00:31.190
well the company that can make the most of warner brothers economically is netflix netflix has the best mousetrap in the world for turning long form premium video into profit dollars however this merger might be much more important strategically to paramount because scale is
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 00:52.950
just so important in streaming and paramount doesn't have it at least to a competitive degree right now and warner would really vault paramount forward
? (Anchor) 01:02.430
right and look at the share price of warner brothers it's trading up three and a half percent closer to twenty nine i believe netflix offer was was at twenty eight and and paramount was thirty is that right
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 01:12.470
yeah so netflix offered twenty seven seventy five and it's important to remember that the netflix offer leaves a stub equity as an as an additional source of value for the warner brothers shareholders and so what i mean is the cable network portfolio of warner brothers which
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 01:29.030
will be known as discovery global will continue to trade it'll act like a dividend to the warner brothers shareholders and so we think that's worth about a dollar per share per WBD share and so the netflix offer should be thought about as twenty seven seventy five for the
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 01:47.710
studios plus a buck for that streaming in studios or for that warner cable network portfolio that adds up to just under twenty nine it's funny that the paramount merger or offer looks greater at thirty dollars tax but if the company if warner goes with paramount they have to pay
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 02:05.270
a breakup fee to netflix of about one dollar per warner share and so both bids right now from a value perspective end up near twenty nine
? (Anchor) 02:13.950
fascinating and there's there we are twenty four cents shy of that so again the market is kind of recognizing all of this so if you were the chair
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 02:21.110
of the board sure
? (Anchor) 02:23.790
exactly so does not so do who's gonna raise their bids are both sides gonna raise their bids if you were the chairman of the of the board or the board itself of paramount what do you do here
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 02:35.430
well paramount seems to have made six offers by their own statement and now they've adjusted this offer and so i have a hard time convincing myself that they this is their last and final netflix has plenty of capacity to pay more their equity market cap of four hundred and
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 02:54.590
twenty five some odd billion dollars makes this a relatively easy financial bite and so i can see why the arbitrage market is betting on a higher deal price
? (Anchor) 03:05.150
and if netflix were to just say just kidding we just wanted to inflict the most pain on paramount raise the price as much as possible we walk away with our breakup fee and we're chuckling all the way to the bank is that actually a good outcome for them or would the much better
? (Anchor) 03:16.670
outcome for netflix be to get access to these this library in these assets
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 03:20.630
netflix isn't such an enviable position because they have a bright future on both paths having said that i think they'd be better off buying these assets the stock market has sold off netflix stock because of the uncertainty that this deal brings into the netflix story netflix
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 03:37.910
has been this beautiful pure play organic growth company and that would come to an end with this merger but we think netflix would be a terrific owner of these assets if they can win them paramount just needs them more and so our probability we've we've been to starting a high
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst) 03:52.080
probability paramount winning for that simple reason