Paramount's new bid gives Warner Bros. more certainty on financing, says Wolfe's Peter Supino
December 22, 2025 • 3m 54s
? (Anchor)
00:00.230
here
with
his
thoughts
as
peter
sepino
senior
analyst
at
wolfe
research
and
peter
do
you
think
this
increases
the
odds
that
paramount
actually
wins
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
00:07.980
it
definitely
increases
the
odds
these
horses
look
like
they're
neck
and
neck
paramount
with
today's
news
has
given
the
warner
board
more
of
the
certainty
that
it's
been
asking
for
although
we're
not
convinced
that
it's
offered
enough
to
get
this
done
? (Anchor)
00:23.660
remind
me
again
what
your
thoughts
are
about
kind
of
who
this
makes
most
sense
with
is
it
paramount
or
is
it
netflix
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
00:31.190
well
the
company
that
can
make
the
most
of
warner
brothers
economically
is
netflix
netflix
has
the
best
mousetrap
in
the
world
for
turning
long
form
premium
video
into
profit
dollars
however
this
merger
might
be
much
more
important
strategically
to
paramount
because
scale
is
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
00:52.950
just
so
important
in
streaming
and
paramount
doesn't
have
it
at
least
to
a
competitive
degree
right
now
and
warner
would
really
vault
paramount
forward
? (Anchor)
01:02.430
right
and
look
at
the
share
price
of
warner
brothers
it's
trading
up
three
and
a
half
percent
closer
to
twenty
nine
i
believe
netflix
offer
was
was
at
twenty
eight
and
and
paramount
was
thirty
is
that
right
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
01:12.470
yeah
so
netflix
offered
twenty
seven
seventy
five
and
it's
important
to
remember
that
the
netflix
offer
leaves
a
stub
equity
as
an
as
an
additional
source
of
value
for
the
warner
brothers
shareholders
and
so
what
i
mean
is
the
cable
network
portfolio
of
warner
brothers
which
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
01:29.030
will
be
known
as
discovery
global
will
continue
to
trade
it'll
act
like
a
dividend
to
the
warner
brothers
shareholders
and
so
we
think
that's
worth
about
a
dollar
per
share
per
WBD
share
and
so
the
netflix
offer
should
be
thought
about
as
twenty
seven
seventy
five
for
the
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
01:47.710
studios
plus
a
buck
for
that
streaming
in
studios
or
for
that
warner
cable
network
portfolio
that
adds
up
to
just
under
twenty
nine
it's
funny
that
the
paramount
merger
or
offer
looks
greater
at
thirty
dollars
tax
but
if
the
company
if
warner
goes
with
paramount
they
have
to
pay
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
02:05.270
a
breakup
fee
to
netflix
of
about
one
dollar
per
warner
share
and
so
both
bids
right
now
from
a
value
perspective
end
up
near
twenty
nine
? (Anchor)
02:13.950
fascinating
and
there's
there
we
are
twenty
four
cents
shy
of
that
so
again
the
market
is
kind
of
recognizing
all
of
this
so
if
you
were
the
chair
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
02:21.110
of
the
board
sure
? (Anchor)
02:23.790
exactly
so
does
not
so
do
who's
gonna
raise
their
bids
are
both
sides
gonna
raise
their
bids
if
you
were
the
chairman
of
the
of
the
board
or
the
board
itself
of
paramount
what
do
you
do
here
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
02:35.430
well
paramount
seems
to
have
made
six
offers
by
their
own
statement
and
now
they've
adjusted
this
offer
and
so
i
have
a
hard
time
convincing
myself
that
they
this
is
their
last
and
final
netflix
has
plenty
of
capacity
to
pay
more
their
equity
market
cap
of
four
hundred
and
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
02:54.590
twenty
five
some
odd
billion
dollars
makes
this
a
relatively
easy
financial
bite
and
so
i
can
see
why
the
arbitrage
market
is
betting
on
a
higher
deal
price
? (Anchor)
03:05.150
and
if
netflix
were
to
just
say
just
kidding
we
just
wanted
to
inflict
the
most
pain
on
paramount
raise
the
price
as
much
as
possible
we
walk
away
with
our
breakup
fee
and
we're
chuckling
all
the
way
to
the
bank
is
that
actually
a
good
outcome
for
them
or
would
the
much
better
? (Anchor)
03:16.670
outcome
for
netflix
be
to
get
access
to
these
this
library
in
these
assets
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
03:20.630
netflix
isn't
such
an
enviable
position
because
they
have
a
bright
future
on
both
paths
having
said
that
i
think
they'd
be
better
off
buying
these
assets
the
stock
market
has
sold
off
netflix
stock
because
of
the
uncertainty
that
this
deal
brings
into
the
netflix
story
netflix
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
03:37.910
has
been
this
beautiful
pure
play
organic
growth
company
and
that
would
come
to
an
end
with
this
merger
but
we
think
netflix
would
be
a
terrific
owner
of
these
assets
if
they
can
win
them
paramount
just
needs
them
more
and
so
our
probability
we've
we've
been
to
starting
a
high
Peter Supino (Senior Analyst)
03:52.080
probability
paramount
winning
for
that
simple
reason
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