Oil market is significantly oversupplied, says CIBC's Rebecca Babin
December 18, 2025 • 5m 20s
Becky Quick (Anchor)
00:00.350
joining
us
right
now
is
rebecca
babin
cibc
private
wealth
senior
energy
trader
and
rebecca
these
prices
this
year
have
been
kind
of
phenomenal
in
how
low
the
prices
have
been
given
all
of
the
conflict
we
continue
to
see
around
the
globe
things
that
you
would
anticipate
could
Becky Quick (Anchor)
00:16.230
disrupt
oil
markets
but
you
say
that
that
crude
oil
is
kind
of
in
a
war
with
itself
can
you
explain
what
that
means
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
00:23.590
yeah
so
i
think
it
really
hit
on
the
key
point
becky
we've
had
a
lot
of
geopolitical
risk
escalate
this
year
whether
it's
been
israel
and
iran
russia
ukraine
and
now
with
venezuela
and
that
has
at
times
seemed
to
indicate
that
we
would
see
supply
reductions
in
the
market
right
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
00:40.150
we've
got
millions
of
barrels
coming
out
of
russia
and
iran
specifically
but
none
of
these
actual
escalations
have
resulted
in
barrels
being
off
the
market
in
fact
we've
really
seen
all
of
the
sanctions
and
barrels
finding
their
ways
to
buyers
one
way
or
another
and
so
that
has
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
00:59.310
been
the
kind
of
reason
that
the
market
has
experienced
these
short
covering
rallies
there's
supply
risk
the
other
side
of
the
coin
and
where
we're
doing
the
battle
is
on
the
fundamental
side
we're
looking
at
a
market
that
is
significantly
oversupplied
demand
is
growing
for
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
01:14.110
twenty
twenty
five
at
a
million
barrels
a
day
where
supply
non
opec
supply
is
growing
at
one
point
six
million
barrels
a
day
so
this
is
a
market
that
has
a
natural
buffer
built
in
in
terms
of
excess
supply
then
you
add
opec
which
came
in
and
started
unwinding
their
production
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
01:30.670
cuts
and
you
have
a
significantly
significantly
oversupplied
market
so
all
of
these
geopolitical
risks
kind
of
bump
up
against
that
supply
and
it
kind
of
becomes
this
narrative
battle
which
narrative
are
we
focusing
on
today
is
it
supply
risk
or
is
it
the
fundamental
oversupply
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
01:49.710
that's
impacting
prices
at
the
end
of
the
day
the
winner
of
the
battle
for
twenty
twenty
five
clearly
been
fundamentals
proves
down
over
twenty
percent
and
and
fundamentals
have
have
really
been
won
the
day
i
think
that
battle
will
continue
into
twenty
twenty
six
where
we
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
02:05.870
continue
to
see
fundamental
weakness
and
potential
increased
geopolitical
risks
yeah
Becky Quick (Anchor)
02:10.590
i
i
it
it
feels
a
little
different
to
me
than
what
we've
seen
in
the
past
and
that's
basically
because
normally
on
a
supply
demand
situation
it
is
the
demand
situation
demand
side
that
is
the
bigger
driver
if
you
have
a
down
market
like
this
it's
usually
because
there's
economic
Becky Quick (Anchor)
02:28.910
turmoil
somewhere
in
the
world
what
would
happen
to
prices
if
we
weren't
dealing
with
all
these
geopolitical
issues
whether
it
be
russia
and
ukraine
or
venezuela
what
would
happen
if
those
somehow
got
miraculously
solved
if
the
geopolitical
tensions
came
down
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
02:44.910
really
good
point
on
that
and
i
agree
this
is
different
demand
has
actually
outperformed
this
year
even
though
we
were
worrying
about
it
in
april
it's
going
to
be
around
a
million
barrels
a
day
this
year
and
maybe
potentially
one
point
two
million
barrels
a
day
demand
growth
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
02:58.470
next
year
if
we
start
to
see
demand
get
shaky
due
to
geopolitical
or
due
to
global
growth
risks
and
we
see
the
geopolitical
risks
fade
we
will
absolutely
see
crude
test
fifty
wti
maybe
the
forties
but
the
key
here
is
when
we
test
those
levels
that's
when
we
start
to
see
a
supply
Rebecca Babin (Senior Energy Trader)
03:20.550
response
from
US
producers
so
the
market
naturally
resets
itself
back
into
balance
it's
not
going
to
just
continue
to
trade
lower
producers
are
not
going
to
produce
at
a
loss
so
that's
where
you
see
that
mechanism
step
Becky Quick (Anchor)
03:34.030
in
i
mean
we
we
already
heard
there
was
some
reporting
yesterday
that
suggested
the
trump
administration
has
been
looking
to
the
US
majors
to
find
out
who
is
interested
in
going
into
venezuela
to
potentially
actually
pump
more
and
the
answer
was
nobody
at
this
point
because
Becky Quick (Anchor)
03:48.590
there
are
more
fertile
fields
elsewhere
and
because
oil
prices
just
aren't
high
enough
to
kind
of
incentivize
them
to
get
into
this
are
we
already
at
the
point
where
some
fields
would
be
shut
down
or
some
exploration
would
not
happen
because
you
can't
get
crude
above
sixty
Becky Quick (Anchor)
04:04.830
dollars
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