Kelly Evans (Anchor) 00:00.350
my next guest says the prediction market business presents a lot of upside for the fin tech space as robin hood and coinbase users are nine times more likely to participate than non users let's bring in mizuho dan dalive welcome to
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 00:12.830
you it's
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 00:13.590
been a dizzying moment here so can we back up and talk about the series of events what has led to you know a robin hood app now allowing me to make NFL parlay bets in in competition like is this been a regulatory shift or what's going on here
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 00:27.870
well obviously with the new administration everything is easier when it comes to crypto and gambling and betting but i think what changed is that the realization it's the same people like the survey that we did shows you that we did a comprehensive survey of users and it shows
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 00:42.230
you that it's exactly the same people they're betting on sports here and they're buying equities and crypto here so why not just give them a one stop shop
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 00:50.350
well because they're two different things and look i love the prediction markets i they're so much fun but sports betting is is different from that so it seems a little bit like does it matter from i love how i'm asking you now like the the public choice point of view like do we
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:05.630
want all of these things lumped together it's like echo you know do zero day options on this and then do a prediction market on that and then do place a sports bet over here like it's almost like we're equalizing all of them that offends me as someone who takes the you know the
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:18.470
the art of investing more seriously
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 01:21.150
welcome to gen Z they do everything together i think it's a great you're making the best point right which is are we circling too close to the sun here and and eventually will we regret it i mean so far no but i agree with you like gen Z they do things differently so they view
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 01:37.630
buying crypto as investing so why not bet on sports as investing so i think it's just catering to demand or maybe
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:44.270
i might say that i promise we'll get into the the the picks here that putting all of these things together makes them seem like they're similar choices when one of them if done properly builds wealth overtime and the others have the potential to destroy it and you know
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:57.190
prediction markets is just fun that's fine sports betting is different you're in the gambling world now it comes with a lot of risks look at what we've seen from the data from this rollout now so it's just that where it's things like if there's not going to be any guardrails and
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:08.830
is it going to be a risk if regulators change their mind in a few more years and say you know what actually these things should be separated out no
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 02:14.110
i agree with you i mean there's that's the point right like is this going to be too much fun is there going to be too much of it sports betting but right now now it's the same people and i think what vlad is doing and even coinbase what they're doing is really smart because
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 02:26.550
they're they're saying hey all these people are betting here on sports and they're betting here on crypto and equities let me just give them everything and that's the power we actually took up our numbers for robin hood by six seven percent for next year because it's massively
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 02:39.550
accredited on the launch
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:40.590
of what's called sports betting on the platform so talk through the more of the stock implications across the fintech space now as you see them
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 02:48.040
just in general for for coinbase coinbase
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:50.120
is doing that too so the
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 02:51.480
interest thing that came out of the survey and this is an important nuance they have their event today so i'm going to be tuning into that thirty seven percent of the you know of the average user basically thirty is thirty seven percent likely just as likely let's call it to
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 03:05.430
sell crypto than putting in fresh money so there could be an interesting kind of like you know exchange here between you know i'm i'm gonna do sports
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 03:14.670
betting there's coinbase
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 03:16.230
self cannibalizing so and and then we we have to worry about the take rates cause the take rates on coinbase on crypto are very high are the take rates on you know those those betting or prediction markets are going to be as as dilutive to the revenue so we're a little bit more
Dan Dolev (Senior Analyst) 03:30.310
so cautious about coinbase 's sort of entrance into this world for for hood it's like pure ops